The Demographic Race between India and China

Marois, G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2701-6286, Gietel-Basten, S., & Lutz, W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7975-8145 (2025). The Demographic Race between India and China. Population Research and Policy Review 44 (4) e44. 10.1007/s11113-025-09966-y.

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Abstract

As India surpasses China as the world’s most populous country, questions arise as to whether this demographic shift will lead India to overtake China economically. This paper examines this demographic race beyond population size. Using multi-dimensional demographic projections by age, sex, education, and labor force participation, we show that China’s current apparent demographic travails will not necessarily threaten its leading status relative to India for most of the next half century given India’s disadvantage in educational attainment and very low female labor force participation. India’s young population could provide a demographic dividend later this century, but only if it makes substantial investments in education and increasing women’s labor force participation rates. The demographic race between giants will be determined more by human capital development than simply by total population size.

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