Adapting forest management to climate change impacts and policy targets in the EU: Insights from the coupled GLOBIOM/G4M-i3PGmiX model

Derci Augustynczik, A.L., Gusti, M., Deppermann, A., Nakhavali, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2675-6730, Jia, F., Di Fulvio, F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7317-6360, & Havlik, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5551-5085 (2025). Adapting forest management to climate change impacts and policy targets in the EU: Insights from the coupled GLOBIOM/G4M-i3PGmiX model. One Earth 8 (6) e101313. 10.1016/j.oneear.2025.101313.

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Abstract

Climate change significantly affects forest dynamics in Europe and is projected to intensify further, posing challenges to policy goals and ecosystem integrity. This requires changes in forest management that anticipate impacts and act to minimize negative consequences on forest functioning while maintaining forests' contribution to the bio-based economy and decarbonization targets. However, it is still unclear how alternative forest management strategies can support biodiversity, green growth, and mitigation targets under changing environmental conditions. This study uses an integrated modeling framework to address this issue and assess forest management adaptation in the European Union, considering conservation goals and emerging biomass demands. The results show that climate policies will be a major driver of forest management until mid-century, with climate impacts shaping management decisions thereafter. Productivity changes vary regionally, with temperature-limited ecosystems benefiting and water-limited forests declining in growth. These biophysical impacts may displace harvests from Mediterranean and temperate forests to the boreal zone, requiring changes in management practices. Adaptive forest management will, therefore, be crucial for achieving policy goals in Europe under future climate scenarios.

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