Oil crops for sustainable biomaterials. Opportunities for current and future sustainable oil crop production: Exploring Carinata and Coconut

Fischer, G., Tramberend, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7024-1075, & van Velthuizen, H. (2025). Oil crops for sustainable biomaterials. Opportunities for current and future sustainable oil crop production: Exploring Carinata and Coconut. IIASA Report. Laxenburg, Austria: IIASA

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Abstract

Sustainable vegetable oil production is key to supplying the bioeconomy with raw material. As it is also a food ingredient, sustainable production options are urgently needed. This study uses the Roundtable on Sustainable Biomaterials (RSB) criteria as a guide to define sustainable production, and soil conservation principles inform the selection of the vegetable oil production systems and explores: i) coconut (as a single crop and in intercropping) in Southeast and South Asia and tropical regions of the Americas; and ii) carinata as a winter cover crop in Europe and the Americas. The RSB sustainability principles were formalized in several analytical steps accounting for land management, environmental protection, GHG emission savings and land quality. The Global Agro-ecological Zones (GAEZ) modelling framework is used to assess the sustainable vegetable oil production potential under current (2001-2020) and future (2050s) climates.
Carinata oil from winter fallow is concentrated in temperate regions. Countries with significant opportunities include Argentina, with an annual production potential of 15.9 Mt, followed by the USA (15.4 Mt), Spain (4.3 Mt), France (3.0 Mt) and Brazil (2.8 Mt), when cultivated on prime and good land under current climate. High prices can make moderately suitable land economically viable. In Argentina, this could increase production to 22.2 Mt, using almost two-thirds (64%) of current cropland. Climate change has a positive impact on carinata winter cover in North America and Western Europe. The acreage in southern USA suitable for growing carinata as a winter fallow could increase vegetable oil production up to 19.6 Mt by 2050s due to warmer temperatures and sufficient rainfall. Climate change has either no or a slight positive effect in South America.
Of the tropical regions examined in this study, the main production areas for coconut that meet sustainability criteria are in South America, Southeast Asia and South Asia. The type of sustainable coconut production strategy chosen depends on current land use patterns. In South America, unprotected grass- and shrubland could be used for coconut monocropping on REMAIN land, i.e., land that remains after environmental and food security criteria have been met. In South America today, up to 18.8 Mt (Tall coconut), 15.3 Mt (Hybrid coconut), or 10.5 Mt (Dwarf coconut) of vegetable oil could be produced annually using only the best quality land. Exploring coconut intercropping with fodder crops (only for Tall and Hybrid varieties), additional unprotected REMAIN land that is currently used for roaming livestock, increases production, in South America up to 22.1 Mt vegetable oil. A high cropland use of 40-60% in Southeast Asia, South Asia and Central America, leaves little room for coconut monocropping and intercropping with fodder crops. Rain-fed coconut intercropping can offer farmers the opportunity to grow coconut alongside cash crops (coffee, cocoa) or staple foods (banana/plantain). In Southeast Asia, intercropping Tall or Hybrid coconut with either of these crops is suitable on up to 13% of cropland, with vegetable oil potentials of between 11.8 Mt (Dwarf coconut) and 14.5 Mt (Tall coconut).
The impact of climate change on coconut production varies and depends on the scenario, location and coconut production system. For the ‘Sustainability’ Scenario, which assumes that global mean temperatures can be kept below 2 degrees Celsius, the impact on coconut production is relatively small. As climate change intensifies, the potential for coconut production drastically decreases. This is particularly noticeable in South America, where in the ‘Fossil-fueled development’ scenario, only 36% of current potentials (6.7 Mt) can be produced from coconut monocropping on REMAIN land, caused primarily by a decline in the Amazonian rainfall. The negative effects of climate change are lower for coconut intercropping systems and when moderate land qualities are also considered. However, intensifying climate change decreases vegetable oils even in intercropping production systems.
This study has compiled a comprehensive database of spatially explicit vegetable oil production potentials that meet strict sustainability criteria. Together with local data, this can serve as a guide for strategies to transform and adapt the vegetable oil sector to meet the demands of the future bioeconomy.

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