Sustainable agricultural sector: A key component of EU economic prosperity and security – An economic modellers’ perspective.

Havlík, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5551-5085, van Meijl, H., Krisztin, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9241-8628, Müller, M., Van Berkum, S., Fellmann, T., Gocht, A., Guyomard, A., Haniotis, T., Matthews, A., Sckokai, P., Stepanyan, D., Witzke, P., Balázs, K., & Bos, D. (2025). Sustainable agricultural sector: A key component of EU economic prosperity and security – An economic modellers’ perspective. A joint perspective paper by Horizon Europe projects ACT4CAP27, BrightSpace and LAMASUS 10.5281/zenodo.16413130.

Preview

Text ACT4CAP27-BrightSpace-LAMASUS-perspective-paper-2025-07-24.pdf - Published Version Available under License Creative Commons Attribution. Download (1MB) | Preview

Abstract

The EU is facing a convergence of strategic challenges — geopolitical uncertainty, climate crisis, economic stagnation, and social inequality. The 2024–2029 Strategic Agenda underscores the urgency to ensure Europe remains free, democratic, secure, competitive, and prosperous. Agriculture, as a cornerstone of the EU’s economy, food system, and environmental landscape, is central to this transformation.
Business as usual is no longer an option. Despite its strengths, the agri-food sector is showing signs of vulnerability: stagnating yields, slow innovation uptake, critical import dependencies (e.g., fertilisers), environmental degradation, and a growing gap between large and small farms. At the same time, this sector holds untapped potential to support the green transition, economic growth, and food security.
The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), representing nearly one-third of the EU budget, is the primary instrument for shaping this transformation. Ensuring its effectiveness in the post-2027 era requires renewed vision, evidence-based guidance, and systems thinking across economic, environmental, and social domains.
This joint paper synthesises the insights of leading agri-economic modelling teams to guide future CAP development. It identifies five Priority Action Areas (PAAs) — income & resilience, nutrient autonomy, trade, innovation in the bioeconomy, and digitalisation — and proposes future directions for modelling tools to better assess complex policy trade-offs.

Drawing on decades of experience in model-based policy analysis, the paper not only offers strategic advice to policymakers but also outlines a forward-looking modelling agenda. This includes greater integration of environmental and economic data, better representation of innovation and consumer shifts, and enhanced systems-level understanding of the agri-food bioeconomy.

The paper serves as a contribution to current and upcoming discussions on CAP post-2027, European food system transformation, and strategic autonomy. It is intended as a tool for dialogue with policymakers, researchers, and stakeholders aiming to co-create a sustainable and prosperous agricultural future for Europe.

Actions (login required)

View Item