First steps towards bridging integrated assessment modeling and high-resolution energy system models: A scenario matrix for a low-emissions sector-coupled European energy system

Gøtske, E., Pratama, Y. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7660-4666, Andresen, G.B., Gidden, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0687-414X, Victoria, M., & Zakeri, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9647-2878 (2025). First steps towards bridging integrated assessment modeling and high-resolution energy system models: A scenario matrix for a low-emissions sector-coupled European energy system. Environmental Research Communications 10.1088/2515-7620/adf60d. (In Press)

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Abstract

The rollout of variable renewable energy (VRE) generators, along with the electrification of heating and transport sectors and the production of synthetic fuels for hard-to-abate industries, is a key strategy for mitigating climate change. Energy infrastructure planning models must accurately capture the high spatio-temporal variability of VRE to avoid misestimating their contribution to the power generation. Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), which operate at a global scale with low spatio-temporal resolution, often rely on simplified VRE representations with predetermined parameters— potentially leading to suboptimal or infeasible scenarios. To address this limitation, we present the first study to impose forced VRE shares in the high-resolution sector-coupled energy system model for Europe, PyPSA-Eur, for the purpose of IAM parameterization. For a nearly net-zero CO2-emissions system that disregards existing energy infrastructure and builds the optimal capacity mix overnight, we assess the European potential of each technology type across a scenario space with varying forced VRE shares. We derive economic and technical parameters, providing insights applicable to models with lower spatio-temporal resolution.

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