A method to identify positive tipping points to accelerate low-carbon transitions and actions to trigger them

Lenton, T.M., Powell, T.W.R., Smith, S.R., Geels, F.W., Alkemade, F., Ayoub, M., Barbrook-Johnson, P., Benson, S., Blomsma, F., Boulton, C.A., Buxton, J.E., Constantino, S.M., Eker, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2264-132X, Greenlees, K., Homer-Dixon, T., Levin, K., Mascia, M.B., Nijsse, F.J.M.M., Otto, I.M., Spaiser, V., et al. (2025). A method to identify positive tipping points to accelerate low-carbon transitions and actions to trigger them. Sustainability Science 10.1007/s11625-025-01704-9.

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Abstract

Meeting the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to “well below 2 °C” requires a radical acceleration of action, as the global economy is decarbonising at least five times too slowly. Tipping points, where low-carbon transitions become self-propelling, could be key to achieving the necessary acceleration. We deem these normatively ‘positive’, because they can limit considerable, inequitable harms from global warming and help achieve sustainability. Some positive tipping points, such as the UK’s elimination of coal power, have already been reached at national and sectoral scales. The challenge now is to credibly identify further potential positive tipping points, and the actions that can bring them forward, whilst avoiding wishful thinking about their existence, or oversimplification of their nature, drivers, and impacts. Hence, we propose a methodology for identifying potential positive tipping points, assessing their proximity, identifying the factors that can influence them, and the actions that can trigger them. Building on relevant research, this ‘identifying positive tipping points’ (IPTiP) methodology aims to establish a common framework that we invite fellow researchers to help refine, and practitioners to apply. To that end, we offer suggestions for further work to improve it and make it more applicable.

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