Global warming amplifies wildfire health burden and reshapes inequality

Zhao, J., Zheng, B., Ciais, P., Chen, Y., Gasser, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4882-2647, Canadell, J.G., Zhang, L., & Zhang, Q. (2025). Global warming amplifies wildfire health burden and reshapes inequality. Nature 10.1038/s41586-025-09612-9. (In Press)

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Abstract

Global warming intensifies wildfires and exacerbates greenhouse gas and pollutant emissions1. However, global projections remain incomplete, hindering effective policy interventions amid uncertain warming futures2. Here, we developed an interpretable machine learning framework to project global burned areas and wildfire emissions. This framework accounts for the impacts of future climate change on fire activity and quantifies associated premature deaths and radiative forcing from fire-induced particulate matter (PM2.5). Here we show that from 2010–2014 to 2095–2099, fire carbon emissions are projected to increase by 23% under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2-4.5. Increased fire-related aerosols reduce the 0.06 W m⁻² cooling effect north of 60°N. Projections show a surge in premature deaths from wildfire smoke, reaching 1.40 (95% Confidence Interval: 0.66–2.25) million annually during 2095–2099, roughly 6 times higher than current levels. Africa is projected to experience the greatest rise in fire-related deaths (11-fold), driven by emission changes and an aging population. Europe and the U.S. would experience a 1–2-fold increase under SSP2-4.5, linked to rising fire occurrences in the mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere. Overall, the health burden would become more evenly distributed across nations of differing development levels than present patterns, underscoring the need for coordinated efforts.

Item Type:	Article
Research Programs:	Advancing Systems Analysis (ASA) Advancing Systems Analysis (ASA) > Exploratory Modeling of Human-natural Systems (EM) Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Integrated Assessment and Climate Change (IACC)
Depositing User:	Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited:	19 Sep 2025 05:30
Last Modified:	19 Sep 2025 05:30
URI:	https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/20881

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