Towards net-zero electricity sector in emerging economies – Brazil, India, Indonesia and South Africa

Vishwanathan, S.S., Bataille, C., Nogueira, E.C., McCall, B., Siangian, U.W.R., Cunha, S., La Rovere, E.L., Trollip, H., Garg, A., Patange, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6075-8214, Burton, J., & Gunfaus, M.T. (2025). Towards net-zero electricity sector in emerging economies – Brazil, India, Indonesia and South Africa. Climate Policy 1-18. 10.1080/14693062.2025.2550588.

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Abstract

Emerging middle-income countries have indicated a strong commitment towards mitigating their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions not only through their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) but also by raising their climate ambition and committing to net-zero emissions at COP 26 in Glasgow, as well as to tripling renewables at COP 28. The electric power generation sector plays a crucial role in supporting the sustainable social and economic development of a nation but is also currently one of the largest and growing sources of energy related GHG emissions in major emerging economies. In this study, we analyse current policy and deep decarbonization scenarios of the power sector in four developing middle-income economies (Brazil, India, Indonesia and South Africa). Through retirement of old, inefficient fossil-based power plants and a transformative shift towards non-fossil-based variable and firm primary energy sources the results demonstrate a reduction in carbon intensity to 104 grams CO2//kWh (Indonesia), 96 grams CO2//kWh (India) and 43 grams CO2//kWh (South Africa). To achieve power sector decarbonization a step change increase in policy stringency is required, combined with substantial international financial support through mechanisms like Just Energy Transition Partnerships. This must be combined with necessary market reforms to make these markets self-sustaining for needed investments to meet development, energy security and climate goals.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Power, deep decarbonization, India, Indonesia, South Africa, Brazil, emerging economies
Research Programs:	Economic Frontiers (EF)
Depositing User:	Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited:	22 Sep 2025 08:06
Last Modified:	22 Sep 2025 08:06
URI:	https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/20884

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