Model-based spatio-temporal cadmium health risk assessment by rice consumption and management at regional scale in China

Liu, P., Xu, D., Zhu, Q., Posch, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8649-9129, & de Vries, W. (2025). Model-based spatio-temporal cadmium health risk assessment by rice consumption and management at regional scale in China. Journal of Hazardous Materials 499 e140030. 10.1016/j.jhazmat.2025.140030.

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Abstract

Cadmium (Cd) accumulation in agricultural soils and its transfer to crops pose significant health risks to humans. To identify high-risk areas and guide regional management, this study conducted a spatio–temporal assessment of Cd fluxes and pollution risks in rice systems, based on a systematic 5-year survey (2014–2019) in a typical agricultural county in southern China. The model accurately simulated historical changes in soil total Cd content across 56 paddy sites, with an average annual increase of 3.4 μg kg⁻¹ . Atmospheric deposition contributed 63 % of total soil Cd inputs and crop harvesting accounted for 56 % of total outputs, with 25 % of the rice area currently exceeding the national food safety standard. If no mitigation measures are taken this area would increase to 74 % by 2070, with over 87 % of farmlands falling into Cd pollution risk zones. Rice from 52 % of the farmlands would pose non–carcinogenic health risks to the surrounding population. The risks are particularly high in the eastern and western regions, with children (56 %) being more affected than adults (48 %) due to greater Cd intake. To mitigate further Cd pollution, targeted Cd source control areas and improvement of soil properties are essential. The study demonstrates the potential of a site–specific dynamic Cd pollution model to assist decision makers in formulating policies to reduce Cd pollution at regional level.

Item Type:	Article
Research Programs:	Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Pollution Management (PM)
Depositing User:	Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited:	06 Oct 2025 13:53
Last Modified:	06 Oct 2025 13:53
URI:	https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/20906

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