The effect of community resilience and disaster risk management cycle stages on morbi-mortality following floods: an empirical assessment

Guimaraes, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1754-9238, Mechler, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2239-1578, Velev, S., & Chapagain, D. (2025). The effect of community resilience and disaster risk management cycle stages on morbi-mortality following floods: an empirical assessment. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions 25 (10) 3803-3826. 10.5194/nhess-25-3803-2025.

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Abstract

Practice and policy have emphasized the need for building resilience to climate-related events in a further warming world. Scholarship has studied resilience largely in terms of process, latent capacity informing vulnerability, or the outcome of risk management interventions, with little work integrating these perspectives. Implementation science work by the Climate Resilience Alliance has developed the Flood Resilience Measurement for Communities (FRMC) process and tool to measure resilience as an outcome (post-flood mortality and morbidity reduction) and as capacity (pre- and post-intervention levels). This article builds on FRMC analytics to investigate the effect of resilience capacity, represented by five forms of capital (5Cs) and five stages of the disaster risk management (DRM) cycle, on injury and mortality outcomes across 66 flood-affected communities in seven Global South countries. Data were collected using household surveys, community focus groups, key informant interviews, and secondary sources. We applied a quasi-experimental regression design, controlling for demographic and flood hazard/exposure variables, to estimate the effect of 5Cs and DRM stages on health outcomes. Results show that social and human capital help reduce injuries after floods, and preparedness lowers both deaths and injuries. Some results were unexpected, such as the positive association between natural capital and delayed deaths, where limited gains in natural capital may not yield meaningful protection in communities with degraded ecosystems. This study finds that preparedness is the most consistent predictor of positive health outcomes, while forms of 5Cs may not translate into reduced mortality. By combining 5Cs, DRM stages, and health indicators, this paper contributes to bridging a gap in the literature and offers policy-relevant insights for improving community-level disaster response.

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