Reconstructing Educational Attainment from the UN's Age and Sex Distribution (1950–2015)

K.C., S., Mamolo, M., Potančoková, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6115-5952, Durowaa-Boateng, A., & Goujon, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4125-6857 (2025). Reconstructing Educational Attainment from the UN's Age and Sex Distribution (1950–2015). 10.5281/zenodo.16927371.

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Abstract

We have updated the data on the historical reconstruction of population by sex, age, and education, as well as the mean years of schooling, for 147 countries covering the period from 1950 to 2015. Due to some changes in our methodology, the results differ across all countries. Our analysis relies on validated and harmonized historical data used in the 2018 version (Speringer et al., 2019). This back-projection is consistent with the 2023 update of the WIC population and human capital projections (K.C. et al., 2024).

The back-projection utilizes a multidimensional cohort component model. The fundamental hypothesis for reconstructing past educational levels is that educational attainment is typically acquired in earlier stages of life and remains stable thereafter. Consequently, the educational composition of the population reflects historical trends in educational attainment by cohorts, adjusted for the effects of mortality and migration differentials based on education.

We begin with the initial educational composition from the last available year. Furthermore, we extend the age structure of the population to include individuals aged 170 and above and incorporate historical education data. We back-project educational levels along cohorts for those aged 35 and older, assuming no further changes in educational attainment for this group. For these ages, the distribution of education primarily varies due to mortality differentials related to education.

For the population aged 15-34, we back-project educational dynamics by calculating cohort-specific education attainment progression ratios (EAPR) and then reverse the progression ratio as we move backward in time.

While projecting backwards, we apply mortality differentials (also used in the projections) to the population by splitting the overall survival ratio into six education-specific survival ratios. Finally, we apply the resulting education distribution by age and sex to the United Nations population estimates (United Nations, 2022) for the period from 1950 to 2020.

This version number V01 used here corresponds to the version number V15 of the forward projection (updated soon).

Item Type:	Data
Additional Information:	CC-BY
Research Programs:	Population and Just Societies (POPJUS) Population and Just Societies (POPJUS) > Multidimensional Demographic Modeling (MDM)
Depositing User:	Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited:	22 Oct 2025 14:23
Last Modified:	22 Oct 2025 14:23
URI:	https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/20942

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