D5.2 Interim report on methods for generating hazard event sets and quantifying risk

Blanz, B., Daniell, J., Schaefer, A., Claassen, J., Girard, T., Khazai, B., Brand, J., Maier, A., Mysiak, J., Sillmann, J., Strelkovskii, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6862-1768, Ferrario, D., García, M., Koks, E., Ma, L., Padrón, N., & Schlumberger, J. (2024). D5.2 Interim report on methods for generating hazard event sets and quantifying risk. Zenodo 10.5281/zenodo.16365187.

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Abstract

Deliverable 5.2 of the MYRIAD-EU project, an interim report, aims to address the development of European-scale multi-hazard and multi-risk scenarios. The main objective of this deliverable is to integrate and enhance existing methodologies for assessing various natural and human-made hazards for use within the MYRIAD-EU framework. A detailed discussion on the components necessary for crafting European scale multi-risk scenario models is presented including a literature review. This includes an exploration of multi-sector risks at the European level, detailing the requirements for selected sectors within MYRIAD-EU. The report addresses the challenges in generating comprehensive multi-hazard and multi-risk scenarios, emphasising the need for robust, integrated methodologies.
Substantial effort is dedicated to the development of exposure metrics, covering aspects like population, buildings, infrastructure, agriculture, land cover, economic flows, and tourism. These metrics are crucial for assessing the potential impact of various hazards, such as earthquakes, tsunamis, wind, floods, landslides, tornadoes, hail, droughts, wildfires, and other climatic, hydrological, and geophysical threats. The report also explores biological hazards (vector- borne disease from mosquitoes and Covid-19), underscoring the diverse nature of risks faced by Europe where probabilistic, stochastic, and single events are required and have been extracted for the European context.
The extension of individual hazard data to multi-hazard frameworks is discussed, along with the development of vulnerability and fragility data for direct and indirect risk scenarios. This section paves the way for the application of these models in case study-specific scenarios, particularly for the MYRIAD-EU pilots.
The report examines the development of direct and indirect hazard and risk methodologies, showcasing a variety of approaches, including agent-based models, dynamic adaptive policy pathways, computational general equilibrium models, empirical and machine learning methods, and qualitative descriptions. The comparison of these approaches provides a comprehensive view of the direct and indirect risk modelling landscape. In conclusion, the report outlines the next steps for the integration of the WP5 risk scenarios into the project, setting the stage for continued development and implementation of multi-hazard and multi-risk scenarios across Europe.

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