Air pollution health and economic co-benefits of keeping warming below 2 °C in India

Sarkar, D., Imam, F., Kumar, A., Purohit, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7265-6960, Kiesewetter, G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9369-9812, Klimont, Z. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2630-198X, Chowdhury, S., Pozzer, A., & Dey, S. (2025). Air pollution health and economic co-benefits of keeping warming below 2 °C in India. npj Clean Air 1 (1) e30. 10.1038/s44407-025-00031-8.

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Abstract

The current trajectory of emissions will increase warming and deteriorate air quality in India, leading to severe health and economic impacts. We comparatively assess ambient PM2.5-related health and economic consequences for mid-century under GAINS-simulated business-as-usual (BAU) pathway, which considers current emissions, policies, and mitigation measures will resume in future; and 2°C warming scenario (2°C-WS) that may restrict the warming upto 2°C by 2100. Ambient PM2.5 exposure would change from 14.6–126.4 μg m−3 in baseline across India to 13–136.1 μg m−3 under BAU pathway, but to reduce between 7.4 and 84.4 μg m−3 under 2°C-WS. Projecting socio-demographic determinants, we estimate that the 2°C-WS driven control measures could prevent 0.77 ± 0.19 million annual premature deaths and 18.7 ± 4.3 million DALYs by mid-century, benefiting 18.9 ± 2.8 billion Euros. Emission controls in the domestic, energy, and waste sectors would be pivotal. Here, we show that India should accelerate climate actions to meet 2°C target and align clean-air and health policies for substantial health benefits.

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