Climate change and feeble governance threaten the endangered endemic Cerrado flora in Brazil

Nascimento, E.L.M.d., Velazco, S.J.E., Ramos, F.M., Ramos, R.G., Soterroni, A., & Tessarolo, G. (2025). Climate change and feeble governance threaten the endangered endemic Cerrado flora in Brazil. Perspectives in Ecology and Conservation 23 (4) 290-299. 10.1016/j.pecon.2025.08.007.

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Abstract

Cerrado biome, home of many plants endemic species, is suffering significant habitat loss due to anthropic actions, including natural cover loss and climate change. Here we assess how climate change and future natural cover loss will impact the distribution of endemic and threatened flora in the Cerrado, considering two scenarios related to the implementation of Brazil's Forest Code: the baseline scenario (BS), which reflects partial implementation, and the full implementation of Brazil's Forest Code (IFC). By 2050, distribution losses are projected at 33% under the SSP126 scenario, increasing to 37% and 41% under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. Species are likely to retreat to the southern, southeastern, and central regions, which are the richest in species but will face the most severe reductions. Despite the IFC scenario offering better protection, nearly all species (239) will still experience distribution reductions, even under the most favorable scenarios in this analysis. The study confirms that both climate and natural cover loss will significantly diminish the geographical range of most species by 2050, particularly in areas with the highest current richness. This trend could lead to increased extinction risks, which could be reduced with the full implementation of the Forest Code.

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