Complexity and uncertainty in future food system transformation modelling

Moallemi, E.A., Castonguay, A.C., Mason-D’Croz, D., Nelson, R., Britz, W., Allen, C., Hadjikakou, M., Battaglia, M., Bryan, B.A., Conti, C., Marcos-Martinez, R., Frank, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5702-8547, Nong, D., Eker, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2264-132X, Razavi, S., Navarro-Garcia, J., & Gao, L. (2025). Complexity and uncertainty in future food system transformation modelling. Nature Food 10.1038/s43016-025-01257-1.

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Abstract

Food systems face multi-dimensional pressures and require integrated assessments of environmental, social, health and economic dimensions to inform their transformation. Although economic equilibrium models and integrated assessment models have been instrumental in this context, future decision-making requires more diverse and inclusive participatory processes. Here we evaluate the ability of current models to represent food systems and identify challenges and opportunities regarding key aspects of their transformative change, including socio-political dynamics and human-nature feedbacks, links between global and local scales, robustness under uncertainty, as well as evolving stakeholder demands. Our analysis underscores the need to rethink how models are designed and used for a more effective integration into decision-making processes.

Item Type:	Article
Research Programs:	Biodiversity and Natural Resources (BNR) Biodiversity and Natural Resources (BNR) > Integrated Biosphere Futures (IBF) Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Sustainable Service Systems (S3)
Depositing User:	Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited:	13 Nov 2025 09:06
Last Modified:	13 Nov 2025 09:06
URI:	https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/20983

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