Need for speed: Co-creating scenarios for climate neutral energy systems in Austria in 2040

Schmidt, J., Mitter, H., Baumann, M., Boza-Kiss, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4005-2481, Huppmann, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7729-7389, Wehrle, S., Zwieb, L., & Klingler, M. (2025). Need for speed: Co-creating scenarios for climate neutral energy systems in Austria in 2040. Energy Policy 198 e114493. 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114493.

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Abstract

The Austrian government has pledged to achieve climate neutrality by 2040, but so far, there is a lack of consistent net-zero scenarios. Therefore, we integrate a comprehensive stakeholder with a techno-economic modelling process, coupling an energy and a power system model, to co-create qualitative scenario narratives and quantitative model-based scenarios for Austria's energy system, assuming all non-energetic emissions are eliminated. All four scenarios reach climate neutrality by 2040, but differ in terms of energy demand and trade in energy carriers. In the scenario narratives, variations in the local acceptance of renewables and of sufficiency lifestyles explain these differences. All scenario narratives emphasize that commitment of all societal actors is required to reach climate neutrality by 2040. We find that the quantitative model-based scenarios consistently point at far-ranging electrification of transport and heat supply, the buildup of renewables, and a switch in steel producing technology until 2030. Long-term developments are more diverse and show either elevated imports of synthetic fuels or a more pronounced expansion of domestic renewables. Consistently across scenarios, significant fossil fuel infrastructure must be retired before end of life and the required speed of change in energy infrastructure is unprecedented in the history of the Austrian energy system.

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