NGFS Phase 5 Short Term Scenarios

Battiston, S., Fragkiadakis, K., Hackstock, P., Mandel, A., Mazzocchetti, A., Monasterolo, I., Naumann-Woleske, K., Paroussos, L., Ju, Y., van Ruijven, B., & Tsiaras, S. (2025). NGFS Phase 5 Short Term Scenarios. 10.5281/zenodo.15790097.

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Abstract

Please do not request a data download here.
Rather, the data is available for download at the NGFS Scenario Explorer under this download link: https://data.ece.iiasa.ac.at/ngfs-phase-5-short-term/#/downloads. In order to download click on Guest login. You will be forwarded to the downloads page. At the bottom of the downloads page you can download the data.

The license permits use of the scenario ensemble for scientific research and commercial use, but restricts redistribution of substantial parts of the data. Please refer to the FAQ and legal code for more information.

Version 1.1 Release Notes
Changes made to data
Price|Level Annualised YoY Growth variable added – this is the CPI inflation rate annualised, comparing the average of the four quarters price level indexes of one year to the average of the four quarters in the year prior.
Policy Rate growth variables removed.
For some green energy PDs in the Highway to Paris scenario, the summation of the pd_adjusted and the baseline_pd variables results in a negative value. These have now been bounded to fix this issue.
About the data set
The NGFS short-term scenarios represent the first publicly available tool to provide a structured analysis of the immediate effects of climate policies and climate change on financial stability and economic resilience. The short-term scenarios complement the existing NGFS toolkit for assessing climate risk, including the NGFS long-term scenarios, which have become a well-established resource for financial actors to assess how economies might evolve over the coming decades. By bridging the gap between understanding the long-term risks arising from climate change and the benefits and costs of the green transition, the short-term scenarios address immediate policy needs and enhance our ability to respond effectively to climate-related challenges.

About NGFS
The Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) is a group of 127 central banks and supervisors and 20 observers committed to sharing best practices, contributing to the development of climate– and environment–related risk management in the financial sector and mobilising mainstream finance to support the transition toward a sustainable economy.

This Scenario Explorer is a web-based user interface for NGFS Scenarios. This provides intuitive visualizations & display of time series data and download of the data in multiple formats.

Item Type:	Data
Research Programs:	Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Integrated Assessment and Climate Change (IACC)
Depositing User:	Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited:	09 Jan 2026 10:08
Last Modified:	09 Jan 2026 10:08
URI:	https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/21179

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