Integrated Solutions to Food–Energy–Water–Environmental NEXUS Security Modeling and Management: Robust Downscaling and Models’ Linkage Procedures

Zagorodny, A., Bogdanov, V., Ermolieva, T., Komendantova, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2568-6179, & Havlik, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5551-5085 (2026). Integrated Solutions to Food–Energy–Water–Environmental NEXUS Security Modeling and Management: Robust Downscaling and Models’ Linkage Procedures. In: Nexus of Sustainability. Understanding of FEWSE Systems ІI. Eds. Zagorodny, A., Bogdanov, V., Zaporozhets, A., & Ermolieva, T., pp. 1-37 Cham, Switzerland: Springer. ISBN 978-3-032-03615-5 10.1007/978-3-032-03616-2_1.

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Abstract

The chapter makes an overview of advanced systems analysis methods, models and modeling tools being developed at IIASA and within NASU (National Academy of Sciences, Ukraine) and IIASA joint project “Integrated modeling for robust management of food–energy–water–social–environmental nexus security and sustainable development”. The chapter discusses the emergence of systemic risks in interdependent FEWE systems and the need for two types of coherent decisions, the ex-ante and the ex-post, to manage the risks. Often, the linkage of systems and models operating at different resolutions is achieved through rescaling (down- and up-scaling) procedures based on some optimizations criteria, e.g., cross-entropy principles. The main aim of disaggregation (down-scaling) and aggregation (up-scaling) techniques is to narrow the spatio-temporal mismatch between scenarios, models outputs, available data, decisions and the scales required for the policy analysis and implementation. The cross-entropy approach combines the available samples of real observations in the locations with other “prior” hard and soft data (expert opinion, scenarios), pseudo-sampling models, evidences on the related variables that exist in the form of equations and constraints, e.g., interdependent observable, partially observable or indirectly observable and non-observable variables on all scales. Approaches to down-scaling in the presence of uncertain priors are outline. The approaches are being further developed at IIASA and the NASU-IIASA joint project. The linkage of distributed sectoral and regional optimization models enable to establish relationships and dialogues between separate models of FEWE systems for the analysis of coordinated solutions without requiring to share or reveal systems-specific information, i.e., under asymmetric information (ASI). The problem is illustrated with an example of linking sectoral and/or regional linear programming models into a cross-sectoral integrated model in the presence of joint constraints; and with an example of linking models of individual producers emitting GHGs (emitting entities or parties) into a prototype model of an emission trading market when information about parties may not be available and joint safety constraints on emissions (when individual parties’ emissions are uncertain) have to be fulfilled. The linkage methods derive solutions in a decentralized manner without revealing information of the parties. The outlined methods and tools pursue the goal to develop and implement advanced systems analysis and integrated modeling approaches allowing joint planning of FEWE sectors under asymmetric information and uncertainties about the sectoral models. Special attention requires proper spatially explicit representation and treatment of uncertainties because the linkage in combination with on-going deregulation processes may create interdependent collective systemic risks of high consequences. Explicit modeling of linkages allows evaluation and treatment of such “insensible” risks under standard independent planning of sectors. Therefore, the models and methods aim for systems analysis of FEWE nexus security under exogenous risks and risks affected (intentionally and unintentionally) by decisions of various agents. The methods and tools involve the concept of robustness and robust solutions which are in a sense optimal for any scenario of potential uncertainties.

Item Type:	Book Section
Uncontrolled Keywords:	FEWES nexus security; Endogenous systemic risks; Inherent anticipating ex-ante and operational ex-post decisions; Two-stage STO; Safety constraints; Robust down- and up-scaling; Uncertain prior information; Distributed models linkage; Asymmetric information; Nonsmooth optimization; Stochastic quasigradient procedures; Integrated modeling and planning of distributed systems
Research Programs:	Advancing Systems Analysis (ASA) Advancing Systems Analysis (ASA) > Cooperation and Transformative Governance (CAT) Biodiversity and Natural Resources (BNR) Biodiversity and Natural Resources (BNR) > Integrated Biosphere Futures (IBF)
Depositing User:	Michaela Rossini
Date Deposited:	21 Jan 2026 15:06
Last Modified:	21 Jan 2026 15:19
URI:	https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/21237

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