Design of Agriculture Drainage Under Uncertainty: 1. Background and Chance Constraint Approach

Strzepek, K.M., Wilson, J.L., & Marks, D.H. (1982). Design of Agriculture Drainage Under Uncertainty: 1. Background and Chance Constraint Approach. IIASA Professional Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: PP-82-003

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Abstract

The problems of waterlogging and salinity on agricultural lands has led to the installation of agricultural drainage systems. The effect of soil property uncertainty on drainage system design and thus drain performance is not implicitly considered by present design procedures. This is the first in a series of papers that will present methods for analyzing the effect of soil property uncertainty on drainage system design. An analysis of the nature of uncertainty and spatial variability in recharge rate and soil permeability is presented. A First Order--Second Moment (FOSM) approach is developed for the Hooghoudt steady-state drainage design equation to provide an estimate of the of the uncertainty of the dewatering zone between the drains as a function of the design variables and the uncertainty in the soil properties. Based upon the FOSM approach, a Chance Constraint model for optimal design of drains is developed which incorporates uncertainty in recharge rate, permeability, dewatering zone with the economics of drain installation to provide the least cost design for given reliabilities of drain performance.

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