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Kiesewetter, G. 
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9369-9812, Filippidou, F., Tsiropoulos, I., Witzke, P., Petropoulou, V., Karkatsoulis, P., Kokkinos, C., Salputra, G., Nieuwenhuijsen, M.J., Velázquez-Cortés, D., Hsu, S.-C., Hamilton, I., Springmann, M., Kuehnle-Nelson, L., Slater, J., Lindl, F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0007-0826-996X, Guéret, S., Zhang, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2487-8574, Tonne, C., & Klimont, Z. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2630-198X
(2026).
Emission Scenarios for Europe under the CATALYSE Project: Beyond the Green Deal.
IIASA Report.
Laxenburg, Austria: IIASA
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Abstract
The pursuit of net zero emissions in the European Union can deliver significant human health co-benefits. Mitigation actions reduce emissions of air pollutants that contribute to a range of diseases. The Climate Action To Advance HeaLthY Societies in Europe (CATALYSE) project, funded by Horizon Europe, seeks to quantify these climate and health co-benefits within a European context. This multi-dimensional initiative spans fundamental research to identifying optimal communication channels for information dissemination.
This report documents the approach, methodology, and results of the development of gridded emission scenarios for air pollutants in Europe until 2050 within the CATALYSE project. The main scenarios include a reference baseline (REF), a scenario achieving Green Deal goals (GD), and a Beyond Green Deal scenario that envisages additional behavioral changes to curb emissions (BGD). A fourth scenario “Beyond Green Deal 90” (BGD90), is a variant that introduces further end-of-pipe air pollution control measures. The activity pathways underlying the scenarios are modeled using the PRIMES and CAPRI models, with assumptions defined collaboratively by modelling team experts in the buildings sector (UCL), active mobility (ISGlobal), and food systems (UOX). Although the projections also include energy and industry sectors, the scenario differentiation emphasizes the buildings, transport, and agriculture sectors because of their relevance for health. Air pollutant emissions are calculated using the GAINS model, which combines activity data with information on air pollution control application rates and technology-specific emission factors to determine national-level sectoral emissions. These emissions are then spatially distributed using appropriate proxies to produce gridded outputs for subsequent modelling of health co-benefits within CATALYSE.
The main scenarios indicate emission reduction pathways for CO2 and air pollutants in the EU. Between 2020 and 2050, the REF scenario delivers an emission reduction of 53% for CO2, 61% for PM2.5, 58% for SO2, 55% for NOx, 30% for NMVOC and 9% for NH3. Emissions are further reduced in the GD and BGD scenarios over this time period, notably with CO2 emissions reductions of 91% for both.
Results reveal sector-specific patterns across air pollutants. Changes in residential combustion is a major contributor to reductions in PM2.5 whose sector share of total emissions falls from about 64% in 2020 to 30% in 2050 for the REF, 27% for the GD, and 25% for the BGD. Road transport, meanwhile, drives NOx reductions, with a sector share of total NOx emissions decreasing from about 38% in 2020 to 8% in REF and 2% in the GD and BGD in 2050. Similarly, power plants and industry contribute to reductions in SO2 and while changes in the agricultural sector contribute to the reduction of NH3 emissions. While the main scenarios reduce emissions significantly, the BGD90 scenario variant demonstrates significant remaining technical emissions reduction potential across air pollutants, indicating that deeper emission cuts are technically achievable.
| Item Type: | Monograph (IIASA Report) |
|---|---|
| Research Programs: | Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Pollution Management (PM) |
| Depositing User: | Luke Kirwan |
| Date Deposited: | 23 Jan 2026 07:22 |
| Last Modified: | 23 Jan 2026 07:22 |
| URI: | https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/21253 |
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