A Multidimensional Projection of Future Regional Inequalities: Migration and Educational Attainment in Spain 2021–2071

Damoun, O., Yildiz, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6192-0634, & K.C., S. (2026). A Multidimensional Projection of Future Regional Inequalities: Migration and Educational Attainment in Spain 2021–2071. IIASA Working Paper. Laxenburg, Austria: WP-26-001

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Abstract

Population projections can be substantially enhanced by incorporating dimensions beyond age and sex. This study presents a multidimensional population projection for Spain by educational attainment, origin, and sub-national region, explicitly accounting for future social heterogeneity. Using data from the Spanish National Statistics Institute (INE) for the period 2017–2023, the baseline population is set in 2021 and projected in five-year intervals through 2071. The projections are disaggregated by three educational levels, five origin groups, and 17 NUTS-2 regions, and implemented within a multistate framework in which education is modelled as a transitioning state. Five projection scenarios are defined, including one that assumes an improvement in the educational composition of migrants. The analysis examines (1) whether the educational profiles of migrants are likely to reinforce ethnostratification; and (2) whether Spanish regions are expected to converge or diverge in terms of educational attainment and origin composition. Results indicate that Spain’s total population is projected to peak around mid-century and subsequently decline, with only seven regions experiencing population growth by 2071 under the medium scenario. Educational progress among migrants largely stagnates across regions and origin groups, except in the educational improvement scenario, where educational attainment increases and convergence is observed. Overall, population growth remains uneven and ethnostratification persists, with meaningful reductions in inequality occurring only under assumptions of improved migrant education. These outcomes, however, remain highly contingent on policy choices and sectoral employment structures. This study provides the first regional-level population projection for Spain that jointly incorporates education and origin, highlighting substantial heterogeneity across regions and offering an innovative framework for modelling social stratification in population projections.

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