Can we bend the curve: Trends in global biodiversity scenarios

Aschi, F., Dekker, S.C., Leclere, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8658-1509, Marques, A., Neumann, C., Ambrosio, G., & van Vuuren, D.P. (2026). Can we bend the curve: Trends in global biodiversity scenarios. Science Advances 12 (6) 10.1126/sciadv.aeb2277.

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Abstract

Internationally, it has been agreed to halt and reverse biodiversity loss, a commitment partly underpinned by model-based scenario analyses showing that bending the trend is possible. These scenarios provide insights into alternative future biodiversity trends and their drivers. Our meta-analysis differentiates scenarios that project biodiversity loss and that halt or reverse the trend based on their quantitative outcomes and explores their key characteristics such as scenario assumptions, drivers of loss, biodiversity indicators and models used. We found that bending-the-curve studies are scarce, and mostly do no account for climate change, which risks suggesting that the trend can be bent too easily. Our findings indicate that bending is only achievable with integrated efforts across different sectors, such as nature conservation, sustainable food production, diet change, and reduced food waste. To better support policymaking, scenarios should be based on model intercomparisons and use standardize indicators to allow comparisons across studies, account for additional drivers of loss to represent the real threats to biodiversity, and include more ambitious cross-sectoral actions to effectively bend the curve.

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