International financial support to achieve the net-zero emissions goal could help resolve equity trade-off between developing and developed countries

Fujimori, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7897-1796, Fan, L., Zhao, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4216-3388, Asayama, S., Hasegawa, T., Nishiura, O., Shiraki, H., & Takahashi, K. (2026). International financial support to achieve the net-zero emissions goal could help resolve equity trade-off between developing and developed countries. Communications Earth & Environment 7 (1) e118. 10.1038/s43247-026-03208-5.

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Abstract

Over 100 countries have announced net-zero emissions goals. Although these net-zero emissions goals may be consistent with global 2 °C climate stabilization, their impacts on equity between developing and developed regions remain poorly understood. Here, we used an integrated assessment model and developed scenarios based on the National Determined Contributions and Net Zero Emissions targets, aiming to achieve the 2 °C goals, along with a baseline scenario that followed the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2 baseline projections. Moreover, we show the extent to which individual national net-zero emissions goals are far from equitable and explored potential measures. The results indicate that net-zero emissions without financial support causes large macroeconomic losses in developing countries. The financial transfer of approximately 2.7 trillion US dollars per year to developing regions equivalent to 5% of household consumption in developed regions is sufficient to alleviate such economic burdens. If developed countries should undertake additional physical emissions reductions, the required carbon dioxide removal will scale to 26 Gigatons of carbon dioxide per year, equivalent to over 10% of household consumption. This result suggests that rather than pursuing additional net-negative emissions in developed countries, international financial transfer could be a more pragmatic approach to attain the global net-zero emissions goal.

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