Rising Air-Conditioning Use Intensifies Global Warming

Zhang, H., Shan, Y., Li, R., Xue, R., Ma, J., Kikstra, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9405-1228, Shi, Z., Wang, Z., Zhang, B., Wang, B., Fang, S., Yang, F., & Hubacek, K. (2026). Rising Air-Conditioning Use Intensifies Global Warming. Nature Communications 17 (1) e1961. 10.1038/s41467-026-69393-1.

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Abstract

Global warming and socio-economic development are together prompting a surge in the use of air-conditioning (AC). Yet the technology that delivers thermal comfort also emits large quantities of greenhouse gases (GHG), exacerbating climate change. We quantify global AC-related GHGs and associated warming impact under five climate scenarios, separating the contributions of global warming and socio-economic development. In a middle-of-the-road scenario (SSP245), cumulative AC-related emissions reach 113.3 GtCO2eq between 2010 and 2050, increasing global-mean temperature by 0.05 °C (0.03 °C-0.07 °C), with only about 8.3% to climate-driven cooling demand. Income inequalities exacerbate disparities in AC use, substantially limiting access to cooling in lower-income regions. While rising incomes reduce this inequality, they increase emissions: income-driven AC growth adds 14–146 GtCO2eq and a further 0.003–0.05 °C of warming by 2050, even under SSP119. These results highlight the need for a rapid low-carbon cooling transition that balances total warming impacts with equitable cooling access.

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