Negative emissions to mitigate Earth system risks

Gasser, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4882-2647, Rezai, A., Cheritel, C., Baklanov, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1599-3618, & Obersteiner, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6981-2769 (2026). Negative emissions to mitigate Earth system risks. Nature Communications 10.1038/s41467-026-69896-x. (In Press)

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Abstract

Most climate policies are designed under a deterministic Earth system and their climate implications evaluated ex-post. Approaches that incorporate uncertainty ex-ante to anticipate Earth system risks remain underexplored. Here, we derive global climate strategies with an ex-ante approach, employing an integrated assessment framework that embeds estimates of physical uncertainty obtained through Bayesian fusion of Earth system models’ and observations’ data. These ex-ante strategies mitigate risks in the Earth system through precautionary measures unseen with the ex-post approach, in cost-benefit analysis and cost-effective implementations of various Earth system targets. Net-zero CO2 emissions must typically be reached a decade earlier, which can require up to a doubling of the near-term carbon price. Importantly, sustained and possibly century-long net-negative emissions must be planned for, albeit not to overshoot targets as in traditional scenarios but to mitigate long-term Earth system risks. This heightens the challenge faced by humanity to build a safe future within Earth system boundaries.

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