An Extension of the Haefele-Manne Model for Assessing Strategies for a Transition from Fossil Fuel to Nuclear and Solar Alternatives

Suzuki, A. (1975). An Extension of the Haefele-Manne Model for Assessing Strategies for a Transition from Fossil Fuel to Nuclear and Solar Alternatives. IIASA Research Report. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: RR-75-047

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Abstract

This paper reports on an extension of the Haefele-Manne model that assesses energy supply strategies for a transition from fossil fuel to nuclear and solar alternatives, and illustrates several optimized strategies. The expanded model solves the problem of how the electricity, petroleum-and-gas, and hydrogen produced by eight possible energy supplying alternatives (two fossil, three nuclear, two solar and one auxiliary) can be allocated to each of the three demand sectors (residential and commercial; industrial; transport) over a 100-year planning horizon, by using a ten-year period formulation. Relevant data for calculation are based on the Aerospace Corporation study for solar technologies, the NASA Systems Design Institute study for hydrogen technologies, and the Haefele-Manne study for fossil fuels and nuclear technologies. Since there are some uncertainties about these data, sensitivity analyses were carried out on the capital cost of solar power stations and on the fuel cost of coal.

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