Uneven distribution of multi-pollutant hotspots worldwide: river exports to seas and their global change drivers in the future

Micella, I., Bak, M.P., Dürr, H.H., Jones, E.R., Kumar, R., Nkwasa, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8685-8854, Suresh, K., Tang, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2867-9241, van Vliet, M.T.H., Wang, M., & Strokal, M. (2026). Uneven distribution of multi-pollutant hotspots worldwide: river exports to seas and their global change drivers in the future. Environmental Research: Water 2 (2) e025002. 10.1088/3033-4942/ae4ad1.

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Abstract

Water pollution with nutrients, chemicals, and plastics seriously threatens coastal ecosystems and populations. This multi-pollutant problem is driven by urbanization, food demand, and human-induced changes. Socio-economic disparities exacerbate these issues, with low- and middle-income regions typically facing greater pollution levels due to inadequate management systems. Progress in addressing multi-pollutant problems remains uneven worldwide. Here, we aim to identify future multi-pollutant hotspots of coastal waters and analyse their spatial distribution patterns associated with socio-economic drivers across global income levels. For this, we apply the existing Model to Assess River Inputs of pollutaNts to Seas to quantify river exports of nutrients (nitrogen & phosphorus), plastics (micro & macro), and chemicals (triclosan & diclofenac) by sub-basin and source for 2010 and 2050. Model inputs were aggregated to sub-basins and derived largely from existing datasets and other integrated models. This study shows that, globally, river exports of pollutants to coastal waters are projected to increase by 2050, although this trend is not consistent across all sub-basins and pollutant types. Thus, future multi-pollutant hotspots of coastal waters are expected to be unevenly distributed worldwide. For many Asian coastal waters, multi-pollutant hotspots are projected because of high pollution levels in 2050, which are largely associated with increased fertilizer use. For many African coastal waters, multi-pollutant hotspots are projected because of rapid increases in pollution levels over 2010–2050 that are driven by rapid population growth and poor waste management. Rapid urbanization drives pollution hotspots with plastics in high-income basins worldwide. Over 75% of the population in low-income basins is projected to live in future multi-pollutant hotspots. Our findings emphasize the need to address income-based disparities in pollution management and to support basin-based policies for equitable and sustainable water management worldwide.

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