Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalaya Under Threat: Climate Change, Cryosphere Hazards, and the Imperative for Regional Cooperation

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Erokhin, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5191-0579 (2026). Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalaya Under Threat: Climate Change, Cryosphere Hazards, and the Imperative for Regional Cooperation. Centre of Excellence for Himalayan Studies, Shiv Nadar University

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Abstract

The Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalaya (HKH) often described as the Third Pole because it contains the largest concentration of snow and ice outside the Arctic and Antarctic anchors Asia’s hydrological security by feeding ten major river systems and sustaining livelihoods across some of the world’s most densely populated downstream plains. The region is undergoing rapid, elevation-amplified warming and accelerating cryosphere change, including glacier mass loss, permafrost degradation, and the growth and reorganization of glacial lakes. One of the most acute manifestations of this transformation is the rising systemic risk from glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), low-probability but high-impact events capable of cascading across borders through shared river basins, infrastructure corridors, and coupled energy-trade systems. Drawing on the contemporary scientific literature on High Mountain Asia (HMA) cryosphere dynamics and GLOF processes, and anchoring the analysis in recent transboundary and near-transboundary flood events, this study argues that regional cooperation implemented through interoperable monitoring, real-time hydrometeorological and cryosphere data exchange, harmonized risk standards, and joint early-warning and response protocols offers a rare set of non-zero-sum gains. It can reduce disaster losses and uncertainty for the region while creating durable channels of technical trust. Building on existing regional platforms such as ICIMOD, emerging WMO Third Pole climate services, and operational experience from China’s Glacial Lake Management System and India’s expanding GLOF risk initiatives, the study proposes a scientifically grounded cooperation oriented toward risk reduction, transparency, and shared human security.

Item Type: Other
Uncontrolled Keywords: Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalaya; Third Pole; glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF); risk governance; regional cooperation; cryosphere hazards; early warning systems
Research Programs: Advancing Systems Analysis (ASA)
Advancing Systems Analysis (ASA) > Cooperation and Transformative Governance (CAT)
Depositing User: Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited: 13 Apr 2026 11:34
Last Modified: 13 Apr 2026 11:34
URI: https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/21474

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