Interdisciplinary perspectives on multi-risk Anticipatory Action

de Boer, T.A., Matanó, A., Calabria, E.E., Alcayna, T., Budimir, M., de Ruiter, M.C., Ewbank, M., Fawwad, M., Gonzalez, D., Jaime, C., Jones, L., Kristensen, K., Lazarus, B., Mena, R., Parkinson, E., Šakić Trogrlić, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6627-873X, Simons, B., Tiggeloven, T., van den Homberg, M., Van Westen, C., et al. (2026). Interdisciplinary perspectives on multi-risk Anticipatory Action. iScience p. 115618. 10.1016/j.isci.2026.115618. (In Press)

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Abstract

Anticipatory Action (AA) has transformed how humanitarian actors respond to forecasted crises, yet most systems remain built around single hazards. This Perspective argues that to stay effective in a world where climate, conflict, and economic shocks increasingly intersect, AA must evolve toward a multi-risk approach. Drawing on a review of 105 active frameworks in 2023 and 154 in 2024 from the Anticipation Hub’s 2024 and 2025 Global Overview Reports, expert consultations, and 17 interviews, we examine how practitioners and scientists are beginning to bridge this gap. Emerging innovations—such as multi-risk analysis informing AA design, scenario-based triggers, conflict-sensitive planning, and adaptive financing—offer promising pathways, but current systems still struggle to capture dynamic vulnerabilities and interactions between risks. Advancing AA will require embracing uncertainty and redesigning systems to learn, adapt, and act across interconnected risks—moving from anticipating single hazards to anticipating intersected crises.

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