Integrating tipping point concepts across diverse systems

Abrams, J.F., Pereira, L.M., Spaiser, V., Wunderling, N., Villasante, S., Tàbara, J.D., Biggs, R., Armstrong McKay, D.I., Zimm, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5603-1015, Milkoreit, M., Constantino, S.M., Debnath, R., Dakos, V., Ritchie, P., Smith, S., Rocha, J., Kéfi, S., Buxton, J., Boulton, C., Greenlees, K., et al. (2026). Integrating tipping point concepts across diverse systems. Communications Sustainability 1 e68. 10.1038/s44458-026-00063-5.

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Abstract

The concept of a “tipping point” is widely used to describe abrupt, potentially irreversible changes in complex systems - from climate subsystems to ecosystems and social dynamics. However, concerns have been raised about definitional ambiguity and conceptual overuse that may obscure rather than highlight potential systemic risk. Here, we offer a cross-disciplinary synthesis of the tipping point literature that identifies three essential properties—self-reinforcing feedbacks, threshold behavior, and persistence—as the defining characteristics of tipping dynamics. While different interpretations reflect genuine system-specific differences and offer complementary insights, these three properties help identify underlying patterns and causal mechanisms across diverse systems. This synthesis promotes conceptual clarity in how tipping point terminology is applied across diverse contexts. In doing so, we identify research priorities: moving beyond single-threshold models, developing cross-system early warning indicators, understanding cascading dynamics between interconnected systems, and advancing integrated models capturing climate-ecological-social feedbacks.

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