Promising climate progress from net-zero ambitions to the Paris Agreement goal

Tagomori, I.S., Diuana, F.A., Baptista, L.B., Bertram, C., Dafnomilis, I., Drouet, L., Fosse, F., Fragkiadakis, D., Fricko, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6835-9883, Hooijschuur, E., Iyer, G., Kikstra, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9405-1228, Krey, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0307-3515, Luderer, G., Ou, Y., Reis, L.A., Richters, O., Rochedo, P.R.R., Vrontisi, Z., Weitzel, M., et al. (2026). Promising climate progress from net-zero ambitions to the Paris Agreement goal. Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02615-y.

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Abstract

Climate targets require strong commitments from countries to be achieved. Using a multi-model analysis, we show that current net-zero pledges bring the world closer to a well-below 2 °C pathway, but an emission gap remains. Increasing ambition will be crucial: expanding the global coverage of net-zero pledges and speeding up action increases consistency with the Paris Agreement (1.5–2.0 °C range in model mean). However, reaching the 1.5 °C goal without overshoot seems increasingly unlikely. While net-zero pledges help reduce carbon-intensive energy sources, domestic policies aligned with strong climate commitments are needed to reduce the reliance on fossil fuels and increase renewable energy capacity. Our scenarios show that emission reductions are driven by gains in energy efficiency, a strong phase-down of coal use and the electrification of sectors such as transport and heavy industry.

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