Unraveling spatiotemporal inequalities and nonlinear drivers in the sustainable transition of cultivated land use: Evidence from the Yangtze River Delta region, China

Wang, S., Jin, X., Qu, Y., Fan, Y., Liu, J., Han, B., & Zhou, Y. (2026). Unraveling spatiotemporal inequalities and nonlinear drivers in the sustainable transition of cultivated land use: Evidence from the Yangtze River Delta region, China. Applied Geography 191 e104028. 10.1016/j.apgeog.2026.104028.

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Abstract

The growing emphasis on socio-ecological impact assessment highlights the importance of cultivated land use transitions in achieving sustainable development goals. However, existing studies have overlooked the complex adaptive mechanisms among structure, function, and effects, thereby limiting a deeper understanding of whether cultivated land use transitions are sustainable. This study develops a regime shift model for the sustainable transition of cultivated land use (STCU) and introduces an adaptive index that integrates structure, function, and effect. Spatial analysis, turning point detection, and explainable machine learning are applied to explore the spatiotemporal inequality, transition pathways, and nonlinear driving mechanisms of STCU in the Yangtze River Delta region (YRD) from 2000 to 2023. The empirical results showed that intra-group imbalances among the main functional areas led to a polarized STCU pattern in the YRD, characterized by high-value aggregation in the northwest and low-value aggregation in the southeast. The years 2006 and 2015 were identified as critical turning points, marking a single regime shift following successive phases of recovery, rebound, and decline. Resource endowment conditions, external environmental disturbances, and actor response strategies contributed 22.31%, 31.11%, and 46.57%, respectively, to STCU; all of these factors exhibited pronounced nonlinear driving and threshold effects. Overall, this study provides a novel theoretical perspective on cultivated land use transitions and proposes differentiated optimization strategies for STCU across main functional areas.

Item Type:	Article
Research Programs:	Biodiversity and Natural Resources (BNR) Biodiversity and Natural Resources (BNR) > Agriculture, Forestry, and Ecosystem Services (AFE)
Depositing User:	Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited:	04 May 2026 09:24
Last Modified:	04 May 2026 09:24
URI:	https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/21529

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