I. Forecasts for Austrian Agriculture to the Year 2000. II. The Food and Agriculture Model for Austria

Ortner, K.M. (1983). I. Forecasts for Austrian Agriculture to the Year 2000. II. The Food and Agriculture Model for Austria. IIASA Research Report. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: RR-83-022

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Abstract

In Austrian agriculture substantial technical progress has been achieved since World War II, and this has led to high self-sufficiency ratios for foods, decreasing relative prices for agricultural products, and increased migration of labor out of agriculture. As forecasts, three scenarios were assumed, which differ according to the level of production of agricultural goods desired by policy makers: (1) a continuation of past price trends; (2) a continuation of current self-sufficiency ratios; and (3) increased exports. It appears that developments observed in the past will continue into the future but with modifications that critically depend on the targets of agricultural policies and the measures taken to pursue them. The results also demonstrate that the econometric policy analysis simulation model can provide valuable information and can -- with some improvement -- become a tool for evaluating agricultural policy alternatives and their outcomes.

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