Practical guidance towards consistent use of overshoot terminology

Rogelj, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061, Pirani, A., Reisinger, A., & Schleussner, C.-F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8471-848X (2026). Practical guidance towards consistent use of overshoot terminology. Environmental Research Letters 21 (11) e110201. 10.1088/1748-9326/ae70c2.

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Abstract

As global warming approaches 1.5 °C, the term ‘overshoot’ is becoming increasingly prominent in climate science, policy, and public communication, but the use of this term remains inconsistent and often ambiguous. This article traces the history of the term in ordinary language and science-policy contexts, showing how specialized uses such as ‘temperature overshoot’ or ‘overshoot pathway’ have diverged from the common meaning of exceeding a target or limit. We provide practical guidance for clearer communication, recommending that authors respect the ordinary meaning of overshoot and specify where insights refer to exceedance, peak warming, decline, or return below a given warming level, while avoiding short-hand terminology where it risks misunderstanding.

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