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Greene, J.H., Gidden, M. 
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0687-414X, Brutschin, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7040-3057, & Nemet, G.F.
(2026).
Drivers of technology diffusion speed in countries.
Nature Communications 10.1038/s41467-026-73563-6.
(In Press)
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Abstract
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and limiting global temperature increases require rapid, large-scale technological transitions. Historical trends in technology adoption can inform how quickly such transitions may occur. We analyse the effects of technology and country characteristics on diffusion speed using an expanded Historical Adoption of Technologies (HATCH) dataset, comprising 5990 national-level time series across 130 technologies and 228 countries. Compared to previous studies, this dataset enables a broader and more integrated assessment of diffusion drivers. We observe substantial variation in growth rates: newer, simpler, more standardised, smaller, less materially intensive, and shorter-lived technologies diffuse more rapidly. These findings suggest that smaller-scale technologies may be adopted faster than complex, large-scale technologies, which may require greater support and longer timeframes for widespread adoption.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Research Programs: | Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Integrated Assessment and Climate Change (IACC) Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Transformative Institutional and Social Solutions (TISS) Young Scientists Summer Program (YSSP) |
| Depositing User: | Luke Kirwan |
| Date Deposited: | 16 Jun 2026 08:12 |
| Last Modified: | 16 Jun 2026 08:12 |
| URI: | https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/21655 |
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