Evidence-based passenger transportation energy service demand scenarios for South Asia in integrated assessment models

Singh Gaur, A., Javaid, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0453-2701, Kishimoto, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8578-753X, & Daly, H. (2025). Evidence-based passenger transportation energy service demand scenarios for South Asia in integrated assessment models. Environmental Research: Energy 2 (4) e045013. 10.1088/2753-3751/ae22e3.

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Abstract

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are instrumental in shaping climate change mitigation policies. However, these models typically lack direct measures of many socio-cultural, behavioral, and lifestyle phenomena. Further, detailed analysis of future transport needs for Global South countries is required, given the expected increase in population, economic activities and, therefore, mobility demand. This work seeks to address both shortcomings by improving the quantification of sustainable mobility scenarios in IAMs for the Global South, with a focus on South Asian countries. Utilizing transport data from South Asia, we develop a passenger mobility demand model. We develop scenario narratives based on alternate visions of mobility futures, consisting of various outcomes for sets of phenomena, and establish interactions to produce IAM parametrizations. This parameterization is done based on pre-exsisting literature, with priority given to evidence from Global South region. Through these methods, we link detailed transport data to IAM scenarios. The relative richness of the data set allows replacing top–down calculations often encountered in IAM scenarios. Since the developed scenarios are based on evidence and data specifically from South Asia, they better capture actual potential mitigation in the region. The results indicate a doubling of passenger mobility demand by 2050, emphasizing the need for a detailed analysis of future scenarios that can guide policy and investment decisions. The scenario outcomes also highlight the importance of expanding public transport infrastructure to meet climate targets and improve access to low-cost mobility. Additionally, literature review and data collection processes have highlighted the urgent need for measured data to refine empirical work and ensure that scenarios and other modeling efforts align with actual regional empiricism.

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