Perspectives on Switzerland's net-negative target after 2050

Bednar, J., Baklanov, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1599-3618, Reisinger, A., & Geden, O. (2026). Perspectives on Switzerland's net-negative target after 2050. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) , Laxenburg, Austria. Commissioned by the Swiss Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN).

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Abstract

Recent trends in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and global mean temperature make it virtually certain that global warming of 1.5°C will be exceeded within the next ten years. Limiting global warming to 1.5°C in the long run will therefore almost certainly rely on global pathways in which global warming peaks above this level and subsequently returns to 1.5°C through sustained global net-negative CO2 and potentially even net-negative GHG emissions.

In this context, countries with high income, strong technological, institutional and economic capacity, and substantial historical contributions to global warming are widely expected to move beyond net-zero targets and contribute to global net atmospheric carbon removal. In broad terms, scaling Switzerland’s contribution to global warming – accounting for territorial CO2 and other GHGs and using its current share of the global population – implies that the median global temperature increase would already be approximately 1.8°C. Although Swiss territorial CO₂ emissions per capita fell below the global average around 2015, emissions embodied in imports substantially exceed domestic emissions. At the same time, Switzerland possesses considerable economic capacity to contribute to global mitigation efforts. Taken together, these factors suggest that Switzerland’s contribution to achieving global temperature goals through carbon removals could reasonably exceed those of many other countries.

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