Adaptive stability of the Black alder ecoepidemic system: integrated intervention alone prevents regime shift under phenological variability

Ghosh, S. & Singh, S. (2026). Adaptive stability of the Black alder ecoepidemic system: integrated intervention alone prevents regime shift under phenological variability. Frontiers in Applied Mathematics and Statistics 12 10.3389/fams.2026.1831903.

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Abstract

The phylophagous beetle (Agelastica alni) larvae outbreak defoliate the canopy in Black alder (Alnus glutinosa) dominated forests. Phytochemical defense of plants provides resistance against further beetle outbreaks. A tachinid parasitoid (Meigenia mutabilis) of the beetle, and optimal foraging of generalist passeriforms, provide resilience against the outbreak. Vernal growth enables recovery of the canopy. These resistance, resilience, and recovery processes operate at different time scales and are subjected to climate and management-dependent phenology. Under phenological variability, this eco-epidemic system of plant-pest-parasitoid-predator can adapt its stability or shift its regime from coexistence. In this study, we developed a process-based hybrid seasonal–annual model to examine the adaptive stability against regime shift of this system across nine phenological scenarios. We then applied optimal control theory to compare the cost and benefit of three management strategies against regime shift: parasitoid release, parasitoid release plus larval removal, and a fully integrated strategy including bird-habitat enhancement. Our results showed that, across the phenological variability, the coexistence equilibrium was the least frequently stable regime, whereas the parasitoid-free state was the most frequent. Only the fully integrated management delivered a locally stable managed equilibrium at minimum cost to maintain the coexistence equilibrium.

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