Towards a Framework for Measuring Adaptation Effectiveness and Resilience Using Outcome Indicators

Zeitfogel, C., Šakić Trogrlić, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6627-873X, Higuera-Roa, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7008-2257, Hyun, J.H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6960-9277, Bachmann, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0007-8974-1241, Mysiak, J., Sarcinella, M., Bovienzo, D., Ceolotto, S., Kind, C., Pena Cerezo, N., Zorita Castresana, S., Schmidt, G., Hernandez-Mora, N., Lotter, F., Bakshi, S., Kaye, S., Diaz Lopez, F., Marchand, M., Koetz, T., et al. (2026). Towards a Framework for Measuring Adaptation Effectiveness and Resilience Using Outcome Indicators. DOI:10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6827. In: EGU General Assembly 2026, 03 May - 08 May 2026, Vienna.

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Abstract

Measuring the effectiveness of climate change adaptation is essential for tracking progress toward policy goals, supporting evidence-based decision-making and learning, and meeting accountability and reporting requirements. However, existing monitoring and evaluation frameworks largely rely on process-based indicators, offering limited insight into whether adaptation interventions deliver meaningful resilience outcomes. There is a lack of standardized outcome indicators, defined as medium-term changes resulting from adaptation interventions that contribute to reduced vulnerability, enhanced resilience, or improved adaptive capacity.

This work presents initial results from the UNDERPIN project, which aims to develop an outcome-based framework for assessing adaptation effectiveness and resilience. A literature review, expert interviews, and a participatory workshop informed the framework. The literature review synthesized outcome-based adaptation indicators from peer-reviewed (n=73) and grey literature (n=125). Semi-structured interviews were conducted with adaptation indicator experts, EU Adaptation Mission projects, and researchers to explore challenges and best practices related to the design, selection, and application of outcome indicators. Furthermore, interviews with four case studies (Basque Country [Spain], Cluj Metropolitan Area [Romania], Normandy [France], and the City of Košice [Slovakia]) helped to further refine the framework and the outcome indicators. A workshop with practitioners and researchers provided additional insights from other EU projects working on monitoring and evaluation of adaptation actions.

Based on these inputs, we developed a zero-draft MEL framework and a structured set of adaptation outcome indicators designed to be applicable across different geographical scales, sectors, and hazards. It will be tested and validated over the next three years in the aforementioned case studies. By advancing both a coherent monitoring, evaluation, and learning framework and a practical indicator set, this work supports stronger adaptation accountability, informs policy implementation, and enables more robust tracking of progress toward regional, national, and European climate resilience objectives.

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