Disentangling the impact of disaster risk reduction on human capital formation and its non-uniform policy effects: Implications for the Global South

Yokomatsu, M. (2026). Disentangling the impact of disaster risk reduction on human capital formation and its non-uniform policy effects: Implications for the Global South. Economic Modelling 163 e107740. 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107740.

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Abstract

Climate change and related hazards are intensifying schooling and learning crises across the Global South. This study develops a household decision-making model for post-disaster human capital investment and examines how disaster risk reduction (DRR) policies affect the schooling hours of children and teenagers. The model focuses on household heterogeneity and incorporates multiple constraints imposed by disaster damage to production capital, health, and school buildings. I analyze a range of behavioral responses and decompose the effects of DRR into several components, including the free-from-subsistence-consumption effect, which enables positive schooling hours among poor households. I also show that DRR policies do not affect all households uniformly and may have a regressive impact through labor-market adjustment. In addition, I discuss complementary policies that can help mitigate widening disparities in human capital formation. This study provides a framework for evaluating the benefits of DRR for human capital formation and supporting educational continuity in the Global South, where the human consequences of climate-related disasters are most severe.

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