The Automobile in a System Context: The Past 80 Years and the Next 20 Years

Marchetti, C. (1983). The Automobile in a System Context: The Past 80 Years and the Next 20 Years. IIASA Research Report (Reprint). IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: RR-83-018. Reprinted from Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 23 [1983].

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Abstract

The diffusion of automobiles in nine countries is seen in terms of the Volterra equations developed for ecological systems. Three parameter logistic equations fit the evolution of the car population perfectly. The behavior suggests a quasi-biological, internally generated determinism that belies the significance of engineering, economics, marketing, and media as diffusion stimuli. Their role is seen to be more a response to, than an initiator of, change. Once diffusion is complete, their significance increases, however. Car safety appears to be controlled by societal "set points."

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