Thresholds of Carbon and Nitrogen Emissions for Sustainable Development in China

Zhou, Y., Xu, X., Zhang, X. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1961-3339, & Gu, B. (2026). Thresholds of Carbon and Nitrogen Emissions for Sustainable Development in China. Earth's Future 14 (7) e2025EF007221. 10.1029/2025EF007221.

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Abstract

The carbon and nitrogen cycles are central to climate regulation, ecosystem health, and food security, yet their integration into the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) framework remains limited. By using a Coupled Human and Natural Systems model, we quantify carbon and nitrogen emission thresholds to achieve related SDGs in China. We find that meeting carbon- and nitrogen-related SDGs requires reductions of 59% in greenhouse gas emissions and 50% and 56% in nitrogen emissions to air and water, respectively, relative to 2020 levels. Achieving these targets could deliver US$988 billion in societal benefits, six times the implementation cost, through yield promotion, improved public health, restored ecosystems, and climate change mitigation. Under current best practices, greenhouse gas reductions reach only 19% of the target values, with nitrogen reductions reach 18%. While industrial and energy transitions could yield substantial carbon dioxide and nitrogen oxides reductions in eastern China, agricultural nitrogen losses remain high in major crop- and livestock-producing regions. Closing these gaps will require integrated policies, deep socioeconomic transformation, and advanced carbon-nitrogen management technologies, providing a transferable pathway for aligning environmental and economic objectives within the SDG framework.

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