Residential relocation decisions under sea level rise and incentives from insurance: A discrete choice experiment study of France

Kim, M., Duijndam, S., Aerts, J.C.J.H., de Bruijn, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3961-6382, Lupi, V., & Botzen, W.J.W. (2027). Residential relocation decisions under sea level rise and incentives from insurance: A discrete choice experiment study of France. Ecological Economics 251 e109190. 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2026.109190.

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Abstract

Using a discrete choice experiment, this study examines household preferences for staying versus relocating under future coastal flood risk in metropolitan France. We estimate mixed logit models to analyse how experimentally varied environmental and economic attributes, together with selected self-reported behavioural variables, shape residential relocation preferences. Flood frequency, beach amenities, insurance premiums, local economic conditions, perceived ability to relocate, homeownership, and prior network exposure significantly influence relocation choices. Counterfactual simulations show that insurance premiums provide a strong price signal: changes in insurance premiums generate substantial predicted changes in staying probabilities, even relative to large increases in flood probability. At the same time, high-income households exhibit slightly higher average staying probabilities across all policy scenarios. These findings suggest that the uniform pricing structure of the French CatNat system may weaken location-specific financial incentives and contribute to socioeconomic differences in coastal exposure while spreading risk-related costs more broadly. As a possible reform direction, we propose finer-scale risk-based pricing complemented by means-tested vouchers to preserve affordability.

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