Integrating land use scenarios with pluvial flood modelling to evaluate spatial development strategies for climate adaptation in the Stuttgart region

McMillan, J.M., Janssen, H., Hoppe, H., Birkmann, J., Handmer, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6674-7946, & Hampel, F. (2026). Integrating land use scenarios with pluvial flood modelling to evaluate spatial development strategies for climate adaptation in the Stuttgart region. Climatic Change 179 (8) e174. 10.1007/s10584-026-04267-5.

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Abstract

Climate change and urbanisation are exacerbating climate risk, including pluvial flooding. Effective risk reduction therefore requires not only accounting for changing hazard patterns under future climate scenarios, but also understanding how land-use change, particularly urban expansion, modifies flood dynamics. This study assesses impact of urban development on pluvial flood exposure in the Stuttgart Region, Germany. We develop and simulate two spatially explicit urban growth scenarios based on current spatial plans: (1) a business-as-usual scenario reflecting current development practices, and (2) a climate-sensitive scenario characterised by more compact development, increased permeable green space, and the integration of blue-green infrastructure. These land-use scenarios are incorporated into a two-dimensional surface runoff model to evaluate their influence on flood extent, maximum depth and maximum flow velocity under an exceptional rainfall event. The results show that urban expansion can both exacerbate or reduce pluvial flooding in existing settlements, including impacts that extend across municipal boundaries. This demonstrates that local and regional planning decisions, as well as policy shaping development, can influence pluvial flood risk. This study’s spatially explicit, regional-level approach, which integrates spatial plans and development strategies, is transferable to other growing regions and can be linked with other modelling and scenario-based approaches. The findings provide further evidence for policy and planning practice of the importance of integrating water-sensitive design measures into new developments and of coordinating cross-boundary impact of plans and developments on flood risk.

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