Subnational disaggregation of SSP-coherent population projections for Europe

Tamburini, A., Bosco, C., & Striessnig, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5419-9498 (2026). Subnational disaggregation of SSP-coherent population projections for Europe. Scientific Data 10.1038/s41597-026-07878-w. (In Press)

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Abstract

Age- and sex-specific, subnational population projections are scarce despite their essential role, e.g., in planning the provision of health, education, or social services. This Data Descriptor presents a new, open dataset providing downscaled population information for 305 NUTS-2 regions across 34 European countries covering the 2020 to 2100 period in 5-yearly steps. It is consistent with the latest country projections under the SSPs and provides population information by sex and five-year age groups. The dataset results from (1) the application of a neural-network model architecture to project regional age structures, before (2) imposing an SSP-consistent sex split that propagates country-level scenario trends while preserving regional heterogeneity. The dataset is accompanied by the fully documented R code, ensuring transparency, reproducibility, as well as generalizability to other regions or possibly demographic dimensions. This new resource facilitates analyses of demographic heterogeneity across regions and over time, as well as integrated assessments of social policies, regional development, and climate-related risks under alternative socioeconomic futures.

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