Black carbon emissions and climate impacts of cost-saving Arctic transit shipping through 2050

Yi, W., Strelkovskii, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6862-1768, He, T., Zhang, W., Wang, X., Rovenskaya, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2761-3443, Wang, X., Gong, Y., Luo, Z., He, K., & Liu, H. (2026). Black carbon emissions and climate impacts of cost-saving Arctic transit shipping through 2050. Nature Sustainability 9 (8) 1243-1255. 10.1038/s41893-026-01877-w.

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Abstract

As climate change accelerates, emerging Arctic routes offer economic gains by shortening voyages but pose climate risks through black carbon deposition on snow and ice. Here we assess Arctic transit shipping at the global scale. Among 295 port pairs with reduced distance, only 249 achieve positive net economic benefits when accounting for fuel, transit, insurance, capital costs and turnover profits. By 2050, Arctic transit shipping could generate up to US$2.3 billion annually. Black carbon emissions are expected to reach 2,200 tons, with a regional maximum temperature response of 2.0–2.9 mK per US$1 billion of economic benefit. Rising fuel prices are expected to increase the economic attractiveness of Arctic transit shipping. Faster energy transitions could enable earlier decoupling of economic benefits from climate impacts, whereas slower transitions may require adjustments such as transit fees and insurance premiums to limit climate risks.

Item Type:	Article
Research Programs:	Advancing Systems Analysis (ASA) Advancing Systems Analysis (ASA) > Cooperation and Transformative Governance (CAT) Advancing Systems Analysis (ASA) > Exploratory Modeling of Human-natural Systems (EM)
Depositing User:	Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited:	25 Aug 2026 07:01
Last Modified:	25 Aug 2026 07:01
URI:	https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/21827

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