Climate‐Induced Severe Water Scarcity Events as Harbingers of Global Wheat Price

Trnka, M., Meitner, J., Balek, J., Feng, S., Arbelaez Gaviria, J., Fischer, M., Boere, E., Havlik, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5551-5085, Kersebaum, K.‐C., Nendel, C., Ruiz‐Ramos, M., Semerádová, D., Semenov, M.A., Poděbradská, M., Esper, J., Büntgen, U., Torbenson, M., Brzezina, J., Žalud, Z., Katul, G., et al. (2026). Climate‐Induced Severe Water Scarcity Events as Harbingers of Global Wheat Price. Earth's Future 14 (8) e2025EF006095. 10.1029/2025EF006095.

Preview

Text Earth s Future - 2026 - Trnka - Climate‐Induced Severe Water Scarcity Events as Harbingers of Global Wheat Price.pdf - Published Version Available under License Creative Commons Attribution. Download (7MB) | Preview

Abstract

This study connects the dots between global extent of severe water scarcity (SWS) events and spikes in food price. The authors start with three staple crops (rice, wheat, and maize) using a empirical but crop specific characterization of severe water scarcity occurrence, which is defined based on the area of land cultivated with each studied crop that on a given year is under SWS conditions. Water scarcity is estimated based on 1, 3, and 12 months standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index during crop specific sensitive periods (SPs). SPs coincide with the 4 months prior to harvest. A SWS-wheat price relationship model was developed for period 2001–2021 and tested for 1986–2000 and 2022–2024 with future projections calculated under climate change using climate model simulations from CMIP5 and CMIP6 up to 2100. The results show a marked increase in wheat prices driven by increasing SWS area, which is in turn a function of greenhouse gas emissions. The results indicate that the meanglobal mean temperature increase by 3°C (compared to 1951–1980) could lead to the tripling of the mean global wheat price compared to 2010 (after deflating).

Actions (login required)

View Item