Long-term global and regional GDP implications of heat stress on crops and labor

Sheng, D., Edmonds, J., Zhao, X., Patel, P., Morris, S., Dorheim, K., Bertram, C., & Fawcett, A. (2026). Long-term global and regional GDP implications of heat stress on crops and labor. Environmental Research Letters 21 (16) e164025. 10.1088/1748-9326/ae9627.

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Abstract

While extensive evidence documents large physical impacts from extreme weather, empirical estimates of macroeconomic responses are often modest. This disconnect calls for stronger integration across Earth system science, impact research, and economic modeling. In this study, we advance the integration of these three dimensions within a global, multisector dynamic model to examine how heat-induced biophysical shocks in agriculture propagate through the economy. By deriving biophysical responses from emission-driven atmospheric projections, our framework links economic activity, emissions, atmospheric change, biophysical impacts, and economic responses in an internally consistent way. Under a business-as-usual future, and conditional on the selected biophysical response functions and model structure, agricultural heat stress reduces global GDP by approximately 1% by 2100, with losses reaching up to 3% in tropical regions. While heat stress directly affects both crop yields and labor productivity, macroeconomic losses associated with labor heat stress are larger than those associated with crop heat stress. To offset heat-induced labor productivity losses, roughly 79 million workers who could otherwise transition to higher-paying non-agricultural sectors remain in agriculture in 2100, slowing structural transformation and disproportionately reducing GDP in tropical regions. Overall, agricultural heat stress reduces agricultural output, raises food prices and shifts agricultural production toward temperate regions. These findings complement empirically estimated damage functions by revealing the transmission pathways through which biophysical shocks shape broader macroeconomic outcomes, highlighting the value of integrating Earth system and economic processes within a consistent emissions-driven framework.

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