Towards near-real-time forest disturbance monitoring in Europe: Expert meeting and stakeholder consultation report

Dutrieux, L., Carter, S., Deutscher, J., Griess, V., Milenković, M., Petersson, H., Zięba, A., & Beck, P.S.A. (2026). Towards near-real-time forest disturbance monitoring in Europe: Expert meeting and stakeholder consultation report. Publications Office of the European Union , Luxembourg. 10.2760/0204691.

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Abstract

Near-real-time (NRT) forest disturbance monitoring is increasingly relevant for European forest policy, carbon accounting, risk management, and operational forest management. In support of this agenda, the Joint Research Centre (JRC) convened an expert consultation process and an online expert workshop on 3 March 2026 to assess user requirements, review current technical capacities, and identify priorities for future European NRT forest disturbance monitoring. Drawing on 127 survey responses, ten semi-structured expert interviews, and expert discussions during the workshop, this report identifies substantial heterogeneity in user expectations across stakeholder groups and geographic contexts. Stakeholders expressed strong demand for timely disturbance information, high spatial detail, disturbance-type attribution, uncertainty information, and compatibility with existing institutional workflows. At the same time, the analysis highlights several operational mismatches between these expectations and current Earth observation capabilities, including irregular data availability caused by cloud cover, snow, terrain shadows, and seasonal limitations; constraints in achieving both high spatial resolution and low latency at continental scale; and the continuing difficulty of attributing observed canopy change to specific disturbance drivers.

To address these diverse requirements without assuming a single centralised operational solution, the report develops a vision for a collaborative, multi-tiered European forest monitoring ecosystem. In this framework, consistent pan-European baseline products would provide an institutional foundation for policy, reporting, and environmental oversight, while regional, national, and local systems would support more targeted, higher-resolution, and use-case-specific applications. Emerging artificial intelligence methods, including deep learning, foundation models, and naturallanguage interfaces, are discussed as potential accelerators for disturbance attribution, scalable time-series analysis, and improved accessibility of monitoring information. The report further outlines the JRC NRT Intercomparison Challenge, a standardised benchmarking exercise designed to evaluate the performance of diverse satellite-based forest disturbance monitoring workflows across 100 representative European sampling units. By providing an independent, scientifically defensible assessment framework, the initiative aims to support the development of robust remote sensing indicators for forest disturbance monitoring, carbon reporting, and ecosystem resilience in line with the objectives of the EU Forest Strategy for 2030.

Item Type:	Other
Research Programs:	Advancing Systems Analysis (ASA) Advancing Systems Analysis (ASA) > Novel Data Ecosystems for Sustainability (NODES)
Depositing User:	Michaela Rossini
Date Deposited:	23 Sep 2026 08:53
Last Modified:	23 Sep 2026 08:53
URI:	https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/21892

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