Large emission mitigation potential from sequencing fossil fuel extraction infrastructure retirement in China

Jin, Y., Zhong, X., Tukker, A., Tang, X., Brutschin, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7040-3057, Ma, Z., Chen, Y., Li, W., Tian, L., van Ruijven, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1232-5892, & Behrens, P. (2026). Large emission mitigation potential from sequencing fossil fuel extraction infrastructure retirement in China. iScience 29 (10) e117563. 10.1016/j.isci.2026.117563.

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Abstract

China's fossil fuel infrastructure could lock in substantial emissions across both extraction and downstream use, making a well-defined phaseout strategy urgent for achieving carbon neutrality. We analyze the differences between the current retirement strategy and the proposed emission-oriented retirement sequencing strategy by quantifying the emission mitigation effect, employment benefit, and cost-saving advantage of strategies. We show that China's fossil fuel emissions totaled 9,850 MtCO2e in 2023 and are projected to reach 98.9-148.5 GtCO2e cumulatively during 2024-2050 under existing plans across energy-demand scenarios. Strategically sequencing retirements could avoid a cumulative 3.8-4.8 GtCO2e by 2050, more than annual European emissions, while simultaneously increasing employment by 4-6 million full-time equivalent-years and reducing net total system costs by 245-507 billion CNY (around 34-71 billion USD). These results highlight the climate, economic, and social benefits of sequencing-based phaseout strategies.

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